What happens when the two biggest opposition parties can’t even get their own candidates on the ballot? That’s the question Lagos PDP governorship candidate Dr Adetokunbo Pearse is asking — and his answer is blunt: this could blow up in President Bola Tinubu’s face.

Listen, Nigerian politics is never dull, but this week? It has been something else. First, the PDP is in court fighting over who is really in charge. Then the ADC gets hit with a Federal High Court judgment nullifying its entire leadership. And now, Dr Adetokunbo Pearse — the PDP’s governorship candidate in Lagos — is saying all of this is not a coincidence.

In a statement released this week, Pearse alleged that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is using allies, the courts, and INEC to weaken the opposition before the 2027 General Election. We should be clear: these are Pearse’s allegations. The Presidency, the APC, and INEC have not responded to this specific statement at the time of writing.

CBI News TV has reached out for their reaction, and we will update this story when they respond. So, what exactly is Pearse saying? Pearse points to two big courtroom dramas:

1. The PDP wahala.

According to Pearse, the Court of Appeal’s refusal to order INEC to recognise Dr Tanimu Turaki, SAN, as PDP leader means INEC will keep recognising candidates submitted by the camp linked to FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and Daniel Anyanwu.Pearse argues this is troubling because, in his words, previous judgments from the High Court, Court of Appeal, and Supreme Court had already affirmed the expulsion of Wike and Anyanwu from the PDP.

His claim? That their continued recognition is political, because both men have publicly declared support for Tinubu and the ruling APC. He alleges they are being allowed to act as proxies inside the opposition.

2. The ADC wahala

Pearse also reacted to the judgment nullifying the David Mark-led ADC leadership — the same leadership that produced former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar as its presidential candidate. For Pearse, that is another sign of a deliberate attempt to knock out strong opposition forces before 2027. Put together, he says, the plan — if you believe him — is simple: stop the Turaki-led PDP from fielding former President Goodluck Jonathan, stop the ADC from fielding Atiku, and Tinubu walks into re-election without his two biggest threats.

A quick background:

This did not start today. Nigeria’s opposition has been fighting itself for years. The PDP has been split since the 2023 election, when it lost the presidency to Tinubu despite being the main opposition party. Since then, the party has been torn between the Atiku camp, the Wike camp, and now the Turaki camp. It is a bit like a family quarrel that keeps ending up in court. The ADC, on the other hand, became the new home for many opposition figures in 2025-2026, with David Mark as National Chairman and former Governor Rauf Aregbesola as National Secretary. It was meant to be a united opposition platform. Now it too is in court, with a rival faction led by Nafiu Bala Gombe challenging Mark’s leadership. And the timeline is tight. The presidential election is scheduled for 16 January 2027, according to INEC’s timetable. Parties were required to upload National Assembly candidates by July 2026. Every court judgment now has a direct effect on who actually appears on the ballot.

Historically, this is not new in Nigeria. From the Second Republic to the PDP’s 16-year rule, incumbents have often been accused of using state institutions to squeeze the opposition. What is different now, Pearse argues, is the scale — two major opposition parties facing existential legal battles at the same time.

The human angle:

Why should Mama Nkechi in Mile 12 care? Because this is not just about big men in Abuja . If you are a trader in Mile 12, a student in Yaba, or a driver in Surulere, you are living the economy Pearse is talking about. Food prices are still high. Transport fares have not come down. School fees are biting. Pearse says Nigerians are saying “enough is enough.” He invokes that old saying — vox populi, vox Dei — the voice of the people is the voice of God — and argues that hardship could translate into a decisive rejection of Tinubu at the polls, no matter what happens in court. You may agree with him. You may not. But the frustration he is tapping into is real.

In the 2023 election, voter turnout was just 26.7% — the lowest in Nigeria’s history. Many Nigerians stayed home because they felt their vote would not count. Pearse is betting that in 2027, they will come out.

Why it matters. This matters for three reasons:

1. Ballot access is democracy. If a party cannot field its chosen candidates because of a leadership crisis, voters lose a real choice. It does not matter if you support PDP, ADC, APC, or Labour Party — a ballot with only one serious option is not a real election.

2. The courts are now kingmakers. Right now, judges, not voters, are deciding who leads the PDP and ADC. That raises a big question: should party leadership be decided by members or by the courts?

3. It could backfire. This is Pearse’s core warning. He says attempts to suppress the opposition could anger voters even more. In Nigerian history, attempts to shut out opposition — from the annulment of the 12 June 1993 election to the third-term saga of 2006 — often created a backlash that was bigger than the original problem.

EXPLAINER: What is actually happening in court?

We know this is confusing, so here is the simple version:

PDP: Two camps claim to be the real PDP. Turaki’s camp says it is the authentic leadership. Wike/Anyanwu’s camp says otherwise. INEC has to decide whose list to accept. The Court of Appeal has not ordered INEC to recognise Turaki.ADC: David Mark’s camp says it is the legitimate leadership based on a Supreme Court judgment. A Federal High Court on 5 November nullified Mark’s committee and its primaries. The ADC says it will appeal. Until the appeal is decided, INEC is in a tricky spot — does it follow the July recognition or the November nullification?

INEC’s job: INEC does not pick party leaders. It follows court orders and its own register. When courts give conflicting orders, INEC says it waits for the Certified True Copy before acting. That is why you keep hearing “INEC is studying the judgment.”In short: nobody knows for sure whose candidates will be on the ballot until the appeals are finished. What happens next?ADC Appeal: The Mark-led ADC has promised to appeal the 5 November judgment. Watch for the Court of Appeal date. That will be decisive.

PDP Supreme Court? If Turaki’s camp is unhappy with the Court of Appeal, the next stop is the Supreme Court.INEC’s official position: We are still waiting for INEC to issue a fresh, official statement clarifying who it recognises today, not in July. CBI News TV will publish it in full when it comes.

Jonathan vs Atiku vs Tinubu: If both Jonathan and Atiku are blocked, the 2027 race changes completely. If they are cleared, we have a three-way heavyweight fight. The bottom line, Pearse’s message is this: you can win in court, but you still have to win at the ballot box. A nd his warning to Tinubu is equally direct: weakening the opposition on paper does not mean you have weakened the anger on the street. Whether you call it a plot, a coincidence, or just Nigerian politics doing what Nigerian politics does, one thing is clear — 2027 is already shaping up to be one of the most contested elections in Nigeria’s history.

What do you think? Is Pearse right that this could backfire? Or is this just opposition noise? Drop your comment below — we are reading all of them.

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