If you bought petrol in Nigeria in 2022 or 2023, you paid for it twice — once at the pump and once through trillions in subsidy. Now the Senate is asking a very awkward question: how much petrol did we actually import? Because according to the two agencies that should know, the numbers don’t even look like they’re talking about the same country.

The figures that blew it up:

NMDPRA told the committee its records show 3.29 billion litres in 2022 and 6.02 billion litres in 2023.

NNPC Limited’s figures are almost the exact opposite: 6.27 billion litres in 2022 and 3.88 billion litres in 2023.

That’s not a rounding error. In 2022, NMDPRA’s figure is nearly 3 billion litres — about 90% — lower than NNPC’s. In 2023, it’s 2.1 billion litres higher.

Deputy Director Ugwu-Ojobe called the gaps “slight” and said reconciliation was ongoing. The Senate wasn’t having it.

Why This Is Deja Vu

Look, this is not new. Nigeria’s PMS import story has been messy for over a decade.

Under the Petroleum Industry Act, NMDPRA is the official gatekeeper and record-keeper for all midstream and downstream imports. NNPC (now NNPC Ltd) was for years the sole importer of PMS and the entity that claimed subsidy payments.

The NEITI audit that triggered this hearing — the same one that revealed oil companies still owe the federation $6.17bn in royalties and taxes — also showed the bigger picture: Nigeria imported 23.54 billion litres of PMS in 2022 and 20.28 billion litres in 2023, a 14% drop after President Tinubu removed subsidy in May 2023.

That drop matters. The Federal Government paid N4.71 trillion as petrol subsidy in 2022 and N3.01 trillion in 2023. Every litre on paper translates to naira paid out. So, when two agencies differ by billions of litres, the subsidy bill, forex allocation, and landing costs all become suspect.

Historically, similar discrepancies have been at the heart of every fuel subsidy probe since 2012 — from Farouk Lawan’s House probe to forensic audits that never quite reconciled.

Senator Ningi put it bluntly: a disparity of over 50 per cent cannot be described as slight. He called it disturbing and suspicious. Senator Faduyile said it leaves room to suspect foul play, while Senator Bassey warned that Nigerians must not be short-changed.

And that’s the point, isn’t it? While these figures are being argued in air-conditioned committee rooms, the ordinary Nigerian is the one who queued for hours in 2022, paid N600+ per litre in 2023 after subsidy removal, and is now paying close to N1,000 per litre in many stations in 2024-2025. If import volumes are inflated or deflated on paper, it means either subsidy fraud, round-tripping, or smuggling — all of which the citizen pays for.

Why it Matters?

1. Your money: PMS import figures are the basis for subsidy claims, under-recovery and forex. Billions of litres of discrepancy equals potentially hundreds of billions of naira.

2. Transparency: NEITI was created precisely to stop this — to be the independent referee. When NEITI flags it and the agencies still can’t agree, trust in the entire downstream system collapses.

3. Energy security: If we don’t know how much we actually imported versus consumed (Nigeria’s daily consumption is notoriously estimated anywhere from 40m to 70m litres), we can’t plan refinery output, Dangote supply, or imports.

How Could This Happen?

How do two federal agencies get such different numbers for the same product?

* Different data sources: NMDPRA tracks vessel cargo clearances and depot receipts. NNPC tracks its own chartered cargoes and Direct Sale Direct Purchase (DSDP) deals.

* Timing lag: A cargo that arrives in December 2022 but discharged in January 2023 might be counted in different years.

* Smuggling and unmetered volume: NEITI has consistently reported crude theft — 36.69 million barrels lost in 2022 and 7.68 million in 2023 — which shows metering is weak across the value chain.

* The old subsidy incentive: Under the old subsidy regime, there was a perverse incentive to overstate volumes.

None of these excuses impressed the Senate Committee, which described the defence as unacceptable.

Next Steps — What Happens now?

Senate Committee Chairman Senator Dankwabo has ordered a tripartite showdown. The heads of the three agencies — NMDPRA, NNPC Ltd, and NEITI — will be summoned to appear together to reconcile the records or expose possible fraud.

If reconciliation fails, the committee can recommend a forensic audit by the Auditor-General, a full Senate plenary probe, and possible referral to the EFCC.

For now, the 2022 and 2023 PMS import records remain officially rejected. As reported by cbinewstv.com, Nigerians will be watching whether this ends with real reconciliation or, like many past subsidy probes, with plenty of English and no closure.

Follow for updates on cbinewstv.com

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